John's Wandering Thoughts

Danny Lim Left Out In The Cold

I just received this email:

 

From: Danny Lim [mailto:shlimdanny@yahoo.com.sg]
Sent: Tuesday, December 08, 2009 12:16 PM
To: hlimdanny@yahoo.com.sg
Subject: I need your help...

Hello, I hope you get this on time, i had a trip to the United Kingdom for a program. I'm presently in London now and am having some difficulties here because i lost my wallet on my way to the hotel where i lodged, presently my things are been held down by the hotel management pending when i make payment and the hotel manager won't let me leave until i settle the hotel bills. Please i need you to assist me with £1480.00 to sort the hotel bills and to get myself back home, i will appreciate whatever you can afford to assist me with and promise to pay back the money, immediately i return back home. Kindly let me know what you can do to assist me soonest. Danny Lim General Manager Email: shlimdanny@yahoo.com.sg

 

A guy from Singapore won't last one December night on the streets of London.

Like Mr. Kin Shiro, I think Danny's fucked.

Good luck Danny boy!

(If you want a good laugh, go to www.ebolamonkeyman.com. It's a legit website put together by a guy scamming the scammers.)

Torn into Two

Since I wrote my last post on my favorite hotel rooms in the world, I have been a little troubled with myself. Actually, I've been troubled for a few years now but can't seem to find a way to reconcile myself. So, I decided to put fingers to keyboard and write about it in hopes that it goes away. That is, or at least until someone says, "John, everything is going to be ok." Actually, I'm not sure that'll really help either.

 

You see, I pride myself on being one of those do-it-yourself, independent travelers. I do my research prior to a trip, come up with a rough plan, and then go off on my adventure to see where the world takes me. When I travel, I like to go places to rub elbows with the locals. What's the point of going to some exotic destination only to hang out with people of your own kind, own language, with similar experiences and backgrounds? I mean, I guess it's ok if you're 80 years old, German, or xenophobic, but for many, that would be more of a colossal waste of money than a cultural experience. Instead, I've taken to traveling alone or with one companion (fewer people is less intimidating to the locals) to exotic and remote places, and relying on whatever wits I may have between my ears on those particular days. This, I find, results in a more satisfying traveling experience that brings with it a total sensory overload. "Traveler's high" is probably a good term for it.

 

To maximize the traveler's high, one needs to keep pushing outside their comfort zone, be it sitting next to the floor on a hard-class Chinese train without a seat assignment (where I took some of my best photographs, by the way); opting to sleep in lower quality hotels with cockroaches to save a few dollars or because it was the only choice in town; eating whatever animal parts are put on the plate in front of you, being told it's lamb only to find out it's barbequed rat; driving so deep into the West Bank that the Palestinian Authority showed up to investigate; sitting next to the small crater in the limestone floor of the Tel Aviv restaurant where the bomb went off the year before; visiting countries where no one speaks English; or where there are no white people, for that matter. The locals in these locales don't live in the burbs with well-manicured lawns, their 2.1 children, or central air conditioning. Many of them are just trying to make it to the end of next month. I'm not saying that everyone should go sightseeing in the poorer places of the world to feel better about their own lives. That's not the reason to travel. That's the reason I opted out of the guided tour through Rio's largest favela of over a quarter of a million people mired in grinding poverty. There is a fine line between tourism and voyeurism.

 

I grew up relatively poor in a rural part of northern New York State popularized by the 2008 movie, "Frozen River" and more recently by the election debacle in New York's 23rd Congressional District.  My humble redneck roots run deep thanks to my father and other family members whose recreational activities centered around hunting, fishing, camping, trapping and gardening. Florescent orange clothing, guns, knives, baiting hooks, chopping wood, growing and picking vegetables, and blood and guts were all a normal part of my childhood. So were trailers and trailer parks. And raising chickens. That is, until they all froze to death. I think the severed deer leg my father once gave me as a souvenir from one of his kills is still in the house in which I grew up.  Depending on who you talk with, I was never supposed to leave St. Lawrence County. According to one divorce court lawyer, who by a twist of fate is a friend of mine today, my psychological profile at seven years old had me in jail by the age of 16; and I was fortunate to not have been molested like a couple of the boys I knew in high school.

 

I attribute my traveling philosophy to how I grew up. Visiting historical sites, beaches, or famous landmarks is one reason to travel. Experiencing the real culture and the real people is the more important reason to travel. As Mark Twain once said, "travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." Climbing on the Great Wall was nice, but I'd rather spend hours exploring the quickly-disappearing Beijing Hutongs and sharing small-talk with the local residents. The Shanghai night club scene along the Bund has some of the best expat action in the world, but I'd rather spend my time watching the local people live their lives in Old Shanghai, which is disappearing faster than the Hutongs. The nondescript alleys and streets in Siam Reap and Phnom Penh in Cambodia where daily life continues on today were sometimes more interesting than imagining the previous greatness of Angkor Wat described in agonizing detail in the Lonely Planet. The backpackers in Laos were heading to Vang Vieng to float down the river, but I headed to Vang Vieng to see the countryside along the way, how the villagers harvested their rice, dried their peppers, grew their bananas, and lived their lives. But I must admit that instead of taking the local bus, I hired a private driver who drove an air-conditioned van. In Luang Prabang, Laos, groups of people wandered in and around the temples, snapped a few photos, then left; but if a monk spoke English, then we would ask each other questions for half an hour.  Living in a Chinese city has had its creature comforts, but I still remain very curious about the countryside. When I had the chance at work, I made a point to chit-chat with some of the migrant workers who were working on the construction project that brought me to Dalian, China in the first place. There is nothing worse than a cheesy "cultural event" consisting of a busload of tourists watching a staged performance of modern people in traditional clothing. Just show me the real, everyday people. Also, just because I'm a white guy in Asia doesn't mean I need to go first class all the way. I just never really had a first class kind of life. Hence, my internal strife. What have I become if I'm hiring drivers and staying in boutique hotels with gourmet food, excellent wine lists, and a daily room rate twice that of the average monthly salary of an average Cambodian family? Have I lost touch with my humble redneck roots? Worse yet, am I getting soft? Or am I getting old and intolerant of the general population?

 

I live in two different worlds and I cannot seem to adjudicate myself. When at the grocery store while vacationing on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, I feel I have more in common with the Central European college students working their summer away at the checkout counters at the Food Lion or Harris Teeter's in Corolla than I do the people buying the groceries. However, once I returned to the beach, I easily blended in with all those, or their clones, who I saw in the grocery store. I carry an airline frequent flier card that allows me to check in at the first class desk and gives me access to that particular airline's first class club lounges all around the world; I always check in at the first class desk instead of waiting in line, but I still prefer to sit at the gate with everyone else. For the better part of the last three years I haven't driven a car because my company prohibits me from driving in China. However, when I'm in my car, I sit in the front seat with my driver because it makes me feel as though Wang and I are on more equal terms although we both know differently. While in Siam Reap, I hired a tuk-tuk driver for $10/day, but when he asked me about my hotel, I was somewhat embarrassed to even mention the name of the place. Of course, if I wanted to get back to my hotel, I had to tell him where it was.

 

When in Luang Prabang, I decided to visit the Tad Sae Waterfall. I found a tuk-tuk driver on the street the night before my planned trip and negotiated a rate with him. The next morning he picked me up at my hotel and he drove me into the countryside. I went to the waterfall for a couple hours and then when I returned to the village where he dropped me off, I found five women, two kids, and what must have been at least 100 pounds of rice (enough for two North Korean wives) in various bags in the back of my tuk-tuk. I knew my driver was close by since I hadn't paid him yet. When I found my driver, he told me to ride in the front seat. Since it was too hot, and so I could try to score some points with my companions, I opted to sit in the open air with the women, children, and rice. The only thing missing, it seemed, was a live chicken. As we started our 30 minute drive back into town, I looked around at the villagers and then down at my Sony Cybershot 13.6MPixel point-and-shoot camera. I realized that I was holding in my hand what was probably one year's salary for any one of my traveling companions (and two years college tuition for one monk I talked with). If that wasn't bad enough, the tuk-tuk driver opted to first drop me off in front of my boutique hotel before taking them to the market. Filled with even more guilt, I paid the driver and then walked past my hotel, up an alley, and onto the main street of the village, trying to not let them know where I was staying although I'm sure the driver had already tipped them off. When on the main street, I looked up to see the tuk-tuk, driver, women, kids, and rice go by. I gave them a big wave and a smile when they spotted, as if that would help me reconcile my guilt, and they replied in the same.

 

Making thing worse is when I return home to visit my mother in Massena, New York. When I wander around town, the local people give me a stare, or rather a glare, as though I'm a newcomer rather than a homegrown native. Have I truly lost touch with my humble redneck roots?  Then again, I know several Massena natives who eventually left to pursue their education and careers and would rather not be known as native Masseneans. I guess I shouldn't be too critical when I have something apparently working in my favor.

 

Still, even after putting all this down in words, I haven't really resolved the dichotomy that has become my life. Actually, I don't think I'll ever be able to do so since I am who I am. I guess the best I can do is consider myself very lucky, be thankful for what I have, count my blessings, and try my best to pay forward all the good fortune. A Chinese friend once asked me for my definition of a successful life. I told her that my life would be successful if I left the world a better place than I found it. As I travel, I will strive to make a point to follow Ben Franklin's advice on keeping everything in moderation, even moderation; to learn from those around me; and try my best to live a successful life.

My Top Seven Favorite Hotels

To this day, I can still remember my very first airplane flight. It was the Air Canada flight from Ottawa to Charlottesville, Prince Edward Island. When I was twelve years old, my father, sister, and I went visit my father's brother and his family who, for the most part, still live there. I think my father learned his lesson that sometimes it's ok to spend a little money to alleviate unnecessary pain, since the previous time I accompanied him to PEI from Massena, New York, it was by car and by way of Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. But for whatever reason, I cannot remember the first hotel in which I stayed. I guess that isn't surprising, since hotels tend to be sterile, bland, temporary arrangements that are not worth a second thought the moment I check out. The SAS Radisson in Amman, Jordan, for example, was a nice place, but it took its 2005 bombing to jog my memory of my stay there.

 

Some hotels and motels, on the other hand, are seared permanently into my memory. On one trip to rural northern Pennsylvania, I ended up staying in a dank, musty, dimly-lit room at a redneck biker motel where they apparently didn't have any bleach to completely remove the blood stains from the sheets. I'll never forget my windowless room in a backpacker hotel in a Beijing hutong; the best hotel in Kashgar, China for $50/night, cockroaches and all; or the damp, cramped motel deep in the woods an hour or so north of Paris that couldn't decide if it wanted to be a hunting lodge or a truck stop. For as long as I live, I'll never forget the look on the face of the mouse, keeping warm on the radiator in my Istanbul hotel room, who was clearly surprised when I had the nerve to open the door and turn on the light. At the Cebu Days Inn, in Cebu, Philippines, I considered staying awake all night rather than sleep on the bed (or walk on the floor, for that matter), but at least they had an armed security guard at the front desk.

 

My top seven favorite hotels are spread between Europe and Asia. Why no American hotels? It's easy: none met my criteria. The criteria I used to decide on this list is very simple: (1) it had to be memorable, in a good way; (2) it had to have character and style, and shouldn't have fallen victim to corporate influences; and (3) it had to have good value for money, with a room rate somewhere around $100/night. Some of those listed are family operations, while others belong to big corporations and have been successful at not becoming a McHotel. Most importantly, they're places where I would want to return. If I did make a return visit, then they had not lost any of the charm, coolness, quality, attention to detail, etc. that wanted me to return in the first place.

 

Ok, here we go...

 

7. The Loewen Hotel (Karl-Kromer-Str 8, D-77972, Mahlberg, tel:+49 (7825) 1006, Mahrlberg, Germany, no website). Nestled in the middle of German wine country along the French border, this non-descript, family-owned hotel is a must-visit. The rooms are clean, tastefully decorated, and a bit sparse in that efficient German sort of way, but that's ok. The central focus of this hotel is not the rooms, but the wide open, stylishly lit and well-decorated restaurant that doubles as a family living room, cat and dog included. What makes this hotel a winner is the couple that runs the place. He's the wine sommelier and the gourmet chef who does an impeccable job of pairing the food with the locally-produced wines. I've eaten several dinners there over several years, have never seen a menu, and was never disappointed. We always ate what the cook was preparing that day because it was market fresh. While he cooks, she works the front desk, takes care of the rooms, and sets up the breakfast buffet (included in the price of the room). After writing that last sentence, I think I realized why she always seemed exhausted every time I stayed there.

 

6. Hookers, spies, and crooks. Need I say more about this Zurich, Switzerland airport hotel?? I did in a previous posting. Although the room rate was double my $100/night criteria, the people-watching is too good to not include because their clientele is more diverse and flavorful than their world-class ice cream. If you can't figure out the name of this hotel, then you shouldn't be staying there.

 

5. Hotel zum Rueden, Schaffhausen, Switzerland. When I first stepped into this hotel in February 2001, I knew that it would always be one of my favorites. Located in a 200 year old building in the historic part of Schaffhausen, the Rueden is a pleasant mix of the old world and new that always seem to have the faint smell of wood smoke. Take the glass elevator up to the fourth floor, but then walk down the original wooden spiral staircase. From the construction, it's easy to tell that the building was never meant to be a hotel, but ducking and navigating the thick wooden beams in the rooms and across the thresholds is what lends it charm. What impressed me the most about the Rueden is that they had an honor bar where you poured your own drink, wrote down in a ledger what you poured, how much you poured, and your room number, which would then be charged. One can't get much more Swiss than that, but apparently something went wrong because the day they shut it down was like a shot heard around the world. The end of civilization as we know it is close at hand. WTF?! The Rueden, by the way, is the only place in the world that I know that serves blood orange juice as part of their traditional Swiss breakfast buffet. Tell Daniela and Ferdinand that I sent you.

 

4. Francesco's Hotel, Ios Island, Greece. I'll never forget the moment. It was a warm, sunny day in October 1996 when my ferry pulled into Ios port. I had already done my research and planned to stay at Francesco's because the Lonely Planet and Let's Go (is "Let's Go" still around?) both gave it rave reviews. When I stepped off the boat, at the dock there were two old, grisly Greek guys with maybe a full mouth of teeth between them, holding signs for their respective guesthouses in one hand and cigarettes in the other; and a hot, blonde Swedish girl holding a sign for Francesco's.  I will also never forget the price: $13/night for a clean, double room overlooking Ios port, which is the main reason to visit the Greek Cyclades during the shoulder rather than the peak season. The rooms are basic, but when in Greece, you shouldn't be spending any time in your room. It's harder to find a better place on the island to watch a sunset than from Francesco's patio in the common area; and if you're an independent solo traveler, then you won't be for long if you spend a little time on this same patio since there are plenty of travelers out there looking for a partner in crime. One word of caution: Ios village is a maze of footpaths that all look alike, especially when you're topped up with ouzo at 2 a.m. So, when you're trying to stumble back to Francesco's, make sure you have a few landmarks along the way. Consider yourself warned.

 

3. Hotel Stern, Chur, Switzerland. With over 300 years of operation under their belt, it's clear that the Hotel Stern has it figured out. The best part of all is that the service is impeccable, the rooms are clean, the ambience is stylish and charming, and it's all being done in the same 300-year-old building where it seems that time has stood still. The copious amounts of wood finish throughout the hotel are tastefully done and give the place a rustic feel. Although it's part of the Romantik hotel chain, you'd never know it. The sterile, corporate influences cannot be found in this place. The Stern is a cool, comfortable hotel. In the morning, you can open up your window and listen to cowbells clanging in the distance, or take a walk around Chur, which, clocking in at around 5,000 years, is Switzerland's oldest city. Although the restaurant is on the first floor of the hotel, the Stern serves a classic Swiss breakfast buffet (of course, included with the room) in a quaint upstairs room that is better suited as a museum display. There's no doubt you'll be pleasantly impressed the moment you walk in the door. If you show up during the winter months, like both times when I stayed there, the warm lighting and interior design will draw you in the door. In my book, there's only one hotel in Chur.

 

2. Green Park Hotel, Vientiane, Laos. Besides being the best hotel in all of Vientiane, and probably Laos for that matter, this family-run hotel is excellent value for money. So excellent, in fact, when I arrived I was able to get a room rate cheaper than that of the diplomat whose embassy sends all their people to this hotel. I'm sure she wasn't the only diplomat to have stayed at this hotel, and I'm sure that some quiet deals, sealed with only a handshake, have been made in the bar. My "room" was anything but since I've lived in apartments smaller than the suite they gave me overlooking pool and the well-manicured gardens of palms and tropical flowers. The Green Park is more of a compound than it is a hotel, with its own restaurant, bar, spa, conference rooms and business center. Friendly, attentive staff are everywhere, and after you order your first drink, the bartender will remember your drink for the duration of your stay. The Green Park is about a 15-20 minute walk to central Vientiane, so it has plenty of peace and quiet if you're looking for a place to do some thinking. Don't worry about finding your way there from the airport, because airport transfers are included.  The Green Park is the epitome of quality and style to which American hoteliers should pay close attention. For the doubters, I can vouch that the photos on their website accurately represent what the hotel has to offer. Tell Anousak I sent you.

 

1. Foreign Correspondent's Club (FCC Angkor), Siam Reap, Cambodia. I have only two words for the Foreign Correspondent's Club: top notch. FCC Angkor is on the site of the former French Governor's residence and office during Cambodia's colonial days. It was good to be the governor. The interior designers went out of their way to preserve its history while jazzing it up with plenty of art deco touches. Those decorators really had their shit together. If they had a piano, then I would start to wonder if I accidentally landed in Casablanca. With only 29 rooms, they believe in quality over quantity. What put this place over the top was their generous but tasteful use of aromatherapy inside the rooms and out, allowing for a complete sensual experience. FCC had a full kitchen serving reasonably-priced Asian fusion gourmet specialties to pair up with their substantial wine list of mostly Australian wines. The price per night was twice the monthly salary of the average Cambodian, so I was feeling a guilty about my stay. However, from a western perspective, you don't get much better than this. As an added bonus, the mini-bar is stocked with full-size bottles of liquor. Sometimes it's tough to be a foreign correspondent. And yes, the photos on their website accurately portray what awaits you.

 

While planning your next vacation, keep these places in mind. For what it's worth, I guarantee you that you will not be disappointed.

 

Scaring the Crows

During my normal commute to work, I usually pass by a small patch of land not far from my office where this past spring the local residents planted a variety of crops such as corn, beans, and tomatoes. What piqued my curiosity about this patch of land was that it wasn't your typical flat piece of real estate that someone had to plow, but it was a steep piece of land at about a 45-degree angle that was paved with hollow bricks at a tunnel entrance.

 

The primary purpose of the bricks is to prevent soil erosion on the hillside at tunnel openings here in China, but in this case they also provided the local residents with a hundreds of little flower pots for them to grow fresh vegetables. It seemed that the apartment dwellers next to the tunnel were looking for their very own fresh vegetables, and since arable land in a ten-story apartment building is a rare commodity, the locals made best with what was available outside their front door. Chinese innovation at it's best. Who else would consider utilizing what is generally considered by many a useless piece of land? I'm sure the planters didn't pay any rent on their makeshift garden. Since I was interested in how the growing season would pan out, I kept an eye on these gardens each time I passed by, surprised not to see anyone lying on the sidewalk or in the road after a tumble down the hill.  Then one day as the corn was growing strong, I noticed that a scarecrow fashioned from rags and plastic bags took up residence in the garden. After three years of living, working, and traveling around China, it was the first scarecrow - dào căo rén (稻草人), or "rice/paddy grass man" - I had ever seen in China.

 

At that moment, I couldn't help but think back to the world renowned sinologist Joseph Needham - the subject of the book entitled "The Man Who Loved China" by Simon Winchester - who started his lifelong research on Chinese culture after making an observation in the 1940s about how Chinese farming techniques - but not those that involved crops at a tunnel opening -paralleled those of Western cultures.  Needham, always the inquisitive one, asked the question, "who invented it first?" and then spent the next 30 years answering the question. Now I had to answer my own Needham-esque question, "Who invented the first scarecrow?"

 

Although relatively commonplace, a complete and detailed scarecrow history is hard to find. According to Mrs. Nelson's third grade class on in Yarmouth, MA, the first human-form scarecrow was invented by the Greeks about 2,500 years ago to protect their vineyards from the local bird population. According to Greek Mythology, Priapus was the incredibly ugly son of the god Dionysus and the goddess Aphrodite who lived with farmers tending a vineyard. The farmers noticed that when Priapus, apparently right handed if his photo is any indication, played in the vineyards the birds stayed away from the grapes, resulting in some of their best harvests and best wine. (Priapus, by the way, is more famous for his giant phallus rather than as the first scarecrow. Priapus, as the story goes, bludgeoned to death a donkey with his tool after the donkey dropped a dime on Priapus as he was sneaking up on a drunken girl who passed out.)

 

Of course, it's up to the reader's imagination to decide whether it was Priapus' horrific looks, his big boner (who said scarecrows didn't have a brain?) or just the fact that a kid running through the fields kept the birds away. In any case, some neighboring farmers caught on to the fact that the kid in the field kept the birds (and probably most other wildlife) and began carving wooden figures that looked like Priapus and placed them in their fields, hoping for the same results. Just for the record so I don't get her in trouble, Mrs. Nelson didn't teach her third grade class about boners. That little tidbit came from the pagans.

 

Over time it seems that the Romans learned from the Greeks about the whole scarecrow idea, and as they conquered Europe, they brought with them the practice of using scarecrows to protect their crops all the way to the United Kingdom. Although the Romans never made it as far as Japan, Japanese farmers had their versions of scarecrows. Since people have been planting crops, there have been birds and animals seeking to eat those crops. Japan is no different. Also according to Wikipedia, scarecrows were mentioned in Kojiki, the oldest surviving book in Japan what was compiled in the year 712. In this case, the scarecrow, known as Kuebiko, was a god who knew everything about the world, except for how to walk. This is probably one reason "The Wizard of Oz" was not a Japanese movie. As time went on, Japanese farmers moved onto various implements - such as rags, fish bones, and rancid meat hung from bamboo poles - to protect their crops. These devices were called "kakashi" because they smelled bad ("kaka" is apparently a universal term for "smelly stuff", although I've seen it on one occasion as a Chinese person's western name). These kakashi were not too effective, and probably attracted crows, seagulls, and buzzards looking for a tasty meal because the Japanese eventually moved on to relatively less smelly human forms they still called them kakashi.  According to the pagans, the Japanese would sometimes outfit their stick men with weapons; and in some cases, in lieu of a human form, mounted rags, noisemakers, and sticks to a pole in a rice field and then lit the whole thing on fire. Boners, weapons, and fires...it must be good to be a pagan.

 

When I started paying more attention, I started finding more Asian scarecrows. On a weekend trip to Dandong in September, I saw what was probably the best-dressed scarecrow in China; and during a recent drive from Vientiane to Luang Prabang, Laos, I saw a couple ragged scarecrows watching over some rice fields. At one point on the road from Vang Vieng to Luang Prabang, I saw what I thought was a scarecrow but was a girl harvesting rice, albeit at a very slow pace. I doubt she had a boner. If I were in Thailand, then that might be another story altogether, but I digress...

 

In the Middle Ages, parents in Europe and what is now the United Kingdom who were happy to get their kids out of the house put them to work as scarecrows in much the same way Priapus went about his bird-scaring duties. It was only after the plague outbreak when there were fewer kids to work the fields that farmers reverted back to human-form stick figures. In pre-Columbus North America, Native American men would sit and watch the crops, chasing birds and other animals away as they approached. It just goes to show that necessity is the mother of invention.

 

According to Wikipedia,  scarecrows are known around the world by a wide variety of names such as bogle, flay-crow, mawpin, mawkin, bird-scarer, moggy, shay, guy, bogeyman, shuft, rook-scarer, mommet, murmet, hodmedod, and tattie bogle to name a few.  The actual term "scarecrow" is believed to have been coined by Daniel Defoe in 1719 in his classic "Robinson Crusoe" when Crusoe described how he kept the birds out of his corn crop saying, "...I could never see a bird near the place as long as my scarecrows hung there..." Some attribute the success of Defoe's novel for the assimilation of the term "scarecrow" into the modern English lexicon.

 

But that was then, and this is now, and now, Halloween is just around the corner, or in the case of Chappell Hill, Texas, population 3,000, and Marshall, Michigan, population 7,500, Halloween started this year on October 10. In St. Charles, Illinois, population 31,834, Halloween began on October 9; in Athens, Tennessee, population 14,128, it began on October 17;  in Bayfield, Wisconsin, population 600, it started on September 12; and apparently Emma Krumbee doesn’t have much going on in her life and is looking for company because she started her Halloween celebration in Belle Plaine, Minnesota (population 4,983) on September 1, 2009. If Emma is that hard up for company to have to put on a scarecrow festival in September, she may want to consider becoming a pagan. For the more sensible, head to Easton, Pennsylvania, population 26,267, who will hold their scarecrow festival on October 31, 2009.

 

If you feel your life isn’t complete without having attended even one scarecrow festival this year, you might think you could jet off to Australia at the end of their growing season April-May 2010, but you’d miss out. Although crops are now just being planted in the Australian spring, the folks down under are ialready n the midst of their scarecrow festivals. If you happen to be in the neighborhood, you can go to the Kurrajong Scarecrow Festival, Milton Scarecrow Festival, Tamborine Mountain Scarecrow Festival, Middleton County Fair Scarecrow Festival, Maleny Scarecrow Festival, Maffra Scarecrow Festival, Bundanoon Scarecrow Festival, and/or the North Parramatta All Saints Scarecrow Festival. If you completely miss the scarecrow festival boat this year, then mark your calendars now and plan on heading to Wanatah, Indiana, population 1,047, on September 24-26, 2010 to see what they’ll have on tap. For all you pagans out there who are planning on attending, please remember that these are all family events.

 

So, once you have completed your Halloween duties, and all the pumpkins have been carved and all the trick-or-treaters have come and gone, crack open a bottle of wine, pour yourself a glass, and sit back and relax. Before you take your first sip, quietly gaze down into your glass and think back to the inspiration the Greeks received from a similar glass of wine a couple thousand years prior when they saw Priapus running through the fields. Close your eyes as you take your first sip and let the wine dance across your palate, swishing it with your tongue and allowing its flavors to fill your mouth. Then, as you swallow the wine and savor the finish, be thankful that you or your kids are not so ugly to inspire the neighbors to create statues in your/their likeness to scare off the local wildlife.

 

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Photo Credit: Statue of Priapus from http://www.sacred-destinations.com/greece/delos-photos/slides/museum-pan-priapus-cc-charles-haynes.htm

Emerging Markets: The Tail Wagging the Dog

Not too long ago, economic pundits were predicting the next global depression after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the meltdown of AIG; the nationalization of Northern Rock in the United Kingdom; the whole quagmire that has become the Icelandic banking system; and a barrel of oil selling for less than a couple rounds of drinks at happy hour. The personal savings rate in the US soared from near-negative to north of 5 percent, while the global stock markets plunged just as fast. Even the fixed income market wasn't. The only things missing were the locusts, floods, and plagues. It seemed that we were nearer to the end of the world than anytime since the early 1930s, with the exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

What a difference a couple quarters makes. Computers and information technology, a bellwether for corporate capital and personal spending (computers and cell phone accounted for almost 60 percent of chip sales), continued to be on the rise. Although the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently reported that computer chip sales in Q2'09 (US$51.7 billion) were down 25 percent versus the same period in 2008, they were up 17 percent versus Q1'09, the fourth consecutive increase in quarterly chip sales.

According to the SIA, personal computer manufacturers saw the developing nations as their largest growth market. Even in the worst global recession in over 50 years, China is still forecasting a very enviable, annual GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent (Goldman Sachs is predicting 9 percent, and the August 1, 2009 edition of The Economist indicated that China's Q2'09 GDP growth could extrapolate to 12-15% annualized growth), much of this a reflection of how effective the Chinese government was in pushing stimulus money into their economy. Here in Dalian, sidewalks are being installed by the mile, and trees being planted by the forest. In China, stimulus spending is very visible. By contrast, the US government is still trying to figure out how to spell "stimulus" since most of the money is still stuck in congressional committee or has been allocated to low-yielding pet projects to keep voters happy.

Some of the biggest surprises have come from the stock markets. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was up almost 100 percent for 2009 until a recent pullback, and the US and European markets have been on a bull run since March. Given the doom and gloom of the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, it's hard to believe that as of July 29, 2009, when over 50% of the S&P 500 companies reported Q2'09 earnings, 76 percent of them beat expectations, 10 percent met expectations, and 14 percent missed expectations. According to www.cnbc.com, at this same point last quarter, 26 percent of the companies reporting had missed expectations while 63 percent had beaten estimates. During late July and early August, seventy-three companies in the S&P 500 saw their stock prices reach 52-week highs. While Detroit still smolders, Ford Motors posted a US$2.3 billion quarterly profit.

At first glance, this isn't a bad showing for a country where the unemployment rate is at 9.5 percent and personal spending is down to 1997 levels, but is it the beginning of the end of The Great Recession? On August 6, US President Barack Obama told a Virginia crowd that "we might just be seeing the end of the recession" and on August 7, the US non-farm jobs report showed better than expected job declines which caused the S&P and the Dow to shoot to 2009 highs. By the same token, soon after the jobs report was issued the White House indicated that that they thought the US unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent before things get better. So, with all the mixed signals, how does one navigate the current economic environment?

In short: very carefully. To glean some sort of guidance, we are left to looking at the facts and hopefully learn from history. The Great Recession was a result of an American housing market gone bad. As sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages (including interest-only mortgages) reset themselves, people who bought more than they could afford just 'pay them anymore. Exacerbating matters was the collapse of unsustainable housing prices. Amounts owed became greater than the properties held as collateral, and people abandoned their homes. Even now, as the Case-Schiller Index has shown a slight improvement in housing prices, CNN reported recently that by 2011 half of all American mortgages (prime and sub-prime) will be underwater.

Making matters worse, it seems that some American mortgage lenders didn't learn their lesson last year.  For example, friends of mine in Portland, Oregon, recently refinanced their house just over a year after buying it. In the midst of a widespread real estate bust, the bank appraised the house at over 25% more than the purchase price a year earlier, and then offered my friends an opportunity to refinance for a loan greater than 100% of the house value.  Another friend in the US told me a similar story. So, it's unlikely that any true recovery will take hold until those who continue to behave badly, and those who feel they are entitled to a lifestyle beyond their income, come back to reality.

Also, another shoe has yet to drop: American consumer debt. According to an April 2009 Nilson Report, Americans held a cumulative US$972.73 billion in credit card debt, and the average credit card debt for households with credit cards was $10,637. That's almost one trillion dollars of credit card debt at an average annual interest rate of 15 percent. Keep in mind that the hotly-debated Obama Stimulus Package was valued at a mere US$787 billion, and the US national debt is now north of US$11 trillion. According to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 13.9 percent of consumer disposable income goes to service consumer debt, almost all of it credit card debt. Making things even more ominous is that, according to a July 2008 report by Javelin Strategy and Research, 28 percent of those surveyed indicated that their ability to pay off their credit card balance has become more difficult. With an economy now worse shape than a year ago, there's no doubt that 28 percent is a conservative number. According to an April 2009 report from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, 15 percent (34 million) of Americans were late in paying a credit card payment; 8 percent (18 million people) missed the payment altogether. According to a March 2009 Nilson report $462 billion, or almost 46 percent of outstanding credit card debt is held by Chase ($183.32 billion), Bank of America ($166.32 billion), and Citigroup ($106.74 billion), all three still smarting from write-downs from housing mortgages.

Further strangling the American consumer next year could be the price of oil and other commodities. Depending on who you want to believe, oil could cost anywhere from $50 to $150 per barrel by 2011. If Americans need to fork over US$4.00 per gallon to drive to their SUVs to their minimum wage jobs to pay their sub-prime mortgages and their maxed-out credit cards, then something will need to give. Their day of reckoning is almost here as economic growth in the developing countries will once again result in higher costs for commodities such as oil. This upward trend once again started after the March lows. Since commodities are priced in US dollars, a weak dollar will make commodities more expensive, but recently commodity prices have started to inch upwards simultaneously with an appreciation in the US dollar. Copper is up over 30% since March, and depending on who you talk with, could double in price sometime next year.

My late father, born in 1930, would never miss an opportunity to tell me to save my money for a rainy day. Not just money, but cash, because cash is king. A veteran of the Korean War who was never the most politically-correct, I'm sure he'd have a stroke if I told him that he thought more like an Asian than American. It's not an accident that the Asian economies are the biggest savers, especially after the Asian Financial Crisis on the late 1990s and because most Asians have learned through time that the only people they know they can rely on for their future is themselves. For example, my Chinese coworkers who are no more than a year or two out of college are squirreling away between 30-50 percent of their discretionary income.  In contrast, according to an April 2009 report by Sallie Mae, the average American recent college graduate leaves school with at least $4,100 in credit card debt and start their professional career paying debt service. As for my other coworkers who have been working for quite some time, they are saving 20 to 30 percent of their discretionary income.

As of June 2009, the five countries with the largest foreign reserves were China (US$2.2 trillion), Japan (US$1.0 trillion),  Russia (US$401 billion), Taiwan (US$305 billion), and India (US$262 billion). Brazil, the fourth of the BRIC countries, had US$210 billion in reserves. It seems the new kings on the block are the developing, export-led economies that hold most of the cash from the hungry, debt-burdened primarily-American consumers. In China's case, it accumulated its wealth one $0.71 three-dimensional Last Supper clock at a time.  The only catch is that these developing countries will need to learn how to spend. These are the countries (ex-Japan, which is another story altogether) that are in the best position to lead the world out of The Great Recession by creating internal demand and consumer economies. Still, even a modest fraction of the US$4.4 trillion of foreign reserves noted above would provide a nice little boost to the global economy. This is already happening. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the US multinational corporations (MNCs) that beat their earnings expectations in Q2'09 saw most of their growth in developing countries, primarily in Asia (ex-Japan). Even McDonald's Corporation recently reported that their same-store comps where higher in Asia and developing markets than in the United States and Europe. There is no doubt this trend will continue for years to come.

After hundreds of years of colonial rule or victims of imperialism, it seems that the time has come for the developing economies; for the tail to wag the dog.  It just goes to show that what goes around does actually come back around. We are in the midst of a paradigm shift that has only just begun as all the cash that has flooded eastward slowly trickles back westward. This process will not occur without pain. Emerging markets will continue to influence commodity prices that will then squeeze the cash-strapped and credit-burdened  primarily American consumers, directly impacting their economic performance. Western countries will be forced to innovate and adapt, or face the prospect of stagnant wages and slow economic growth for the next ten to fifteen years as the consumer and national debts are slowly digested. In the meantime, the emerging markets will become the engine of the global economy. They will continue to be export-driven, but as their middle classes expand, they will increase their own domestic demand via consumer spending, and China will lead the way to become the world's economic superpower. Just think back to the formation of the US middle class after WWII, but on a much grander scale.

Those who cannot adjust to the new economic landscape as the global liquidity imbalance finds its equilibrium will be left behind. Economic Darwinisn. So, now would probably be a good time for everyone to first brush up on the definition of hysteresis as it applies to the flow of cash, and then consider a foreign language.  Ever since my first trip to China in October 2003, I knew there was a reason why I wanted to learn Mandarin.