John's Wandering Thoughts

Scaring the Crows

During my normal commute to work, I usually pass by a small patch of land not far from my office where this past spring the local residents planted a variety of crops such as corn, beans, and tomatoes. What piqued my curiosity about this patch of land was that it wasn't your typical flat piece of real estate that someone had to plow, but it was a steep piece of land at about a 45-degree angle that was paved with hollow bricks at a tunnel entrance.

 

The primary purpose of the bricks is to prevent soil erosion on the hillside at tunnel openings here in China, but in this case they also provided the local residents with a hundreds of little flower pots for them to grow fresh vegetables. It seemed that the apartment dwellers next to the tunnel were looking for their very own fresh vegetables, and since arable land in a ten-story apartment building is a rare commodity, the locals made best with what was available outside their front door. Chinese innovation at it's best. Who else would consider utilizing what is generally considered by many a useless piece of land? I'm sure the planters didn't pay any rent on their makeshift garden. Since I was interested in how the growing season would pan out, I kept an eye on these gardens each time I passed by, surprised not to see anyone lying on the sidewalk or in the road after a tumble down the hill.  Then one day as the corn was growing strong, I noticed that a scarecrow fashioned from rags and plastic bags took up residence in the garden. After three years of living, working, and traveling around China, it was the first scarecrow - dào căo rén (稻草人), or "rice/paddy grass man" - I had ever seen in China.

 

At that moment, I couldn't help but think back to the world renowned sinologist Joseph Needham - the subject of the book entitled "The Man Who Loved China" by Simon Winchester - who started his lifelong research on Chinese culture after making an observation in the 1940s about how Chinese farming techniques - but not those that involved crops at a tunnel opening -paralleled those of Western cultures.  Needham, always the inquisitive one, asked the question, "who invented it first?" and then spent the next 30 years answering the question. Now I had to answer my own Needham-esque question, "Who invented the first scarecrow?"

 

Although relatively commonplace, a complete and detailed scarecrow history is hard to find. According to Mrs. Nelson's third grade class on in Yarmouth, MA, the first human-form scarecrow was invented by the Greeks about 2,500 years ago to protect their vineyards from the local bird population. According to Greek Mythology, Priapus was the incredibly ugly son of the god Dionysus and the goddess Aphrodite who lived with farmers tending a vineyard. The farmers noticed that when Priapus, apparently right handed if his photo is any indication, played in the vineyards the birds stayed away from the grapes, resulting in some of their best harvests and best wine. (Priapus, by the way, is more famous for his giant phallus rather than as the first scarecrow. Priapus, as the story goes, bludgeoned to death a donkey with his tool after the donkey dropped a dime on Priapus as he was sneaking up on a drunken girl who passed out.)

 

Of course, it's up to the reader's imagination to decide whether it was Priapus' horrific looks, his big boner (who said scarecrows didn't have a brain?) or just the fact that a kid running through the fields kept the birds away. In any case, some neighboring farmers caught on to the fact that the kid in the field kept the birds (and probably most other wildlife) and began carving wooden figures that looked like Priapus and placed them in their fields, hoping for the same results. Just for the record so I don't get her in trouble, Mrs. Nelson didn't teach her third grade class about boners. That little tidbit came from the pagans.

 

Over time it seems that the Romans learned from the Greeks about the whole scarecrow idea, and as they conquered Europe, they brought with them the practice of using scarecrows to protect their crops all the way to the United Kingdom. Although the Romans never made it as far as Japan, Japanese farmers had their versions of scarecrows. Since people have been planting crops, there have been birds and animals seeking to eat those crops. Japan is no different. Also according to Wikipedia, scarecrows were mentioned in Kojiki, the oldest surviving book in Japan what was compiled in the year 712. In this case, the scarecrow, known as Kuebiko, was a god who knew everything about the world, except for how to walk. This is probably one reason "The Wizard of Oz" was not a Japanese movie. As time went on, Japanese farmers moved onto various implements - such as rags, fish bones, and rancid meat hung from bamboo poles - to protect their crops. These devices were called "kakashi" because they smelled bad ("kaka" is apparently a universal term for "smelly stuff", although I've seen it on one occasion as a Chinese person's western name). These kakashi were not too effective, and probably attracted crows, seagulls, and buzzards looking for a tasty meal because the Japanese eventually moved on to relatively less smelly human forms they still called them kakashi.  According to the pagans, the Japanese would sometimes outfit their stick men with weapons; and in some cases, in lieu of a human form, mounted rags, noisemakers, and sticks to a pole in a rice field and then lit the whole thing on fire. Boners, weapons, and fires...it must be good to be a pagan.

 

When I started paying more attention, I started finding more Asian scarecrows. On a weekend trip to Dandong in September, I saw what was probably the best-dressed scarecrow in China; and during a recent drive from Vientiane to Luang Prabang, Laos, I saw a couple ragged scarecrows watching over some rice fields. At one point on the road from Vang Vieng to Luang Prabang, I saw what I thought was a scarecrow but was a girl harvesting rice, albeit at a very slow pace. I doubt she had a boner. If I were in Thailand, then that might be another story altogether, but I digress...

 

In the Middle Ages, parents in Europe and what is now the United Kingdom who were happy to get their kids out of the house put them to work as scarecrows in much the same way Priapus went about his bird-scaring duties. It was only after the plague outbreak when there were fewer kids to work the fields that farmers reverted back to human-form stick figures. In pre-Columbus North America, Native American men would sit and watch the crops, chasing birds and other animals away as they approached. It just goes to show that necessity is the mother of invention.

 

According to Wikipedia,  scarecrows are known around the world by a wide variety of names such as bogle, flay-crow, mawpin, mawkin, bird-scarer, moggy, shay, guy, bogeyman, shuft, rook-scarer, mommet, murmet, hodmedod, and tattie bogle to name a few.  The actual term "scarecrow" is believed to have been coined by Daniel Defoe in 1719 in his classic "Robinson Crusoe" when Crusoe described how he kept the birds out of his corn crop saying, "...I could never see a bird near the place as long as my scarecrows hung there..." Some attribute the success of Defoe's novel for the assimilation of the term "scarecrow" into the modern English lexicon.

 

But that was then, and this is now, and now, Halloween is just around the corner, or in the case of Chappell Hill, Texas, population 3,000, and Marshall, Michigan, population 7,500, Halloween started this year on October 10. In St. Charles, Illinois, population 31,834, Halloween began on October 9; in Athens, Tennessee, population 14,128, it began on October 17;  in Bayfield, Wisconsin, population 600, it started on September 12; and apparently Emma Krumbee doesn’t have much going on in her life and is looking for company because she started her Halloween celebration in Belle Plaine, Minnesota (population 4,983) on September 1, 2009. If Emma is that hard up for company to have to put on a scarecrow festival in September, she may want to consider becoming a pagan. For the more sensible, head to Easton, Pennsylvania, population 26,267, who will hold their scarecrow festival on October 31, 2009.

 

If you feel your life isn’t complete without having attended even one scarecrow festival this year, you might think you could jet off to Australia at the end of their growing season April-May 2010, but you’d miss out. Although crops are now just being planted in the Australian spring, the folks down under are ialready n the midst of their scarecrow festivals. If you happen to be in the neighborhood, you can go to the Kurrajong Scarecrow Festival, Milton Scarecrow Festival, Tamborine Mountain Scarecrow Festival, Middleton County Fair Scarecrow Festival, Maleny Scarecrow Festival, Maffra Scarecrow Festival, Bundanoon Scarecrow Festival, and/or the North Parramatta All Saints Scarecrow Festival. If you completely miss the scarecrow festival boat this year, then mark your calendars now and plan on heading to Wanatah, Indiana, population 1,047, on September 24-26, 2010 to see what they’ll have on tap. For all you pagans out there who are planning on attending, please remember that these are all family events.

 

So, once you have completed your Halloween duties, and all the pumpkins have been carved and all the trick-or-treaters have come and gone, crack open a bottle of wine, pour yourself a glass, and sit back and relax. Before you take your first sip, quietly gaze down into your glass and think back to the inspiration the Greeks received from a similar glass of wine a couple thousand years prior when they saw Priapus running through the fields. Close your eyes as you take your first sip and let the wine dance across your palate, swishing it with your tongue and allowing its flavors to fill your mouth. Then, as you swallow the wine and savor the finish, be thankful that you or your kids are not so ugly to inspire the neighbors to create statues in your/their likeness to scare off the local wildlife.

 

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Photo Credit: Statue of Priapus from http://www.sacred-destinations.com/greece/delos-photos/slides/museum-pan-priapus-cc-charles-haynes.htm

Emerging Markets: The Tail Wagging the Dog

Not too long ago, economic pundits were predicting the next global depression after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the meltdown of AIG; the nationalization of Northern Rock in the United Kingdom; the whole quagmire that has become the Icelandic banking system; and a barrel of oil selling for less than a couple rounds of drinks at happy hour. The personal savings rate in the US soared from near-negative to north of 5 percent, while the global stock markets plunged just as fast. Even the fixed income market wasn't. The only things missing were the locusts, floods, and plagues. It seemed that we were nearer to the end of the world than anytime since the early 1930s, with the exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

What a difference a couple quarters makes. Computers and information technology, a bellwether for corporate capital and personal spending (computers and cell phone accounted for almost 60 percent of chip sales), continued to be on the rise. Although the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) recently reported that computer chip sales in Q2'09 (US$51.7 billion) were down 25 percent versus the same period in 2008, they were up 17 percent versus Q1'09, the fourth consecutive increase in quarterly chip sales.

According to the SIA, personal computer manufacturers saw the developing nations as their largest growth market. Even in the worst global recession in over 50 years, China is still forecasting a very enviable, annual GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent (Goldman Sachs is predicting 9 percent, and the August 1, 2009 edition of The Economist indicated that China's Q2'09 GDP growth could extrapolate to 12-15% annualized growth), much of this a reflection of how effective the Chinese government was in pushing stimulus money into their economy. Here in Dalian, sidewalks are being installed by the mile, and trees being planted by the forest. In China, stimulus spending is very visible. By contrast, the US government is still trying to figure out how to spell "stimulus" since most of the money is still stuck in congressional committee or has been allocated to low-yielding pet projects to keep voters happy.

Some of the biggest surprises have come from the stock markets. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was up almost 100 percent for 2009 until a recent pullback, and the US and European markets have been on a bull run since March. Given the doom and gloom of the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, it's hard to believe that as of July 29, 2009, when over 50% of the S&P 500 companies reported Q2'09 earnings, 76 percent of them beat expectations, 10 percent met expectations, and 14 percent missed expectations. According to www.cnbc.com, at this same point last quarter, 26 percent of the companies reporting had missed expectations while 63 percent had beaten estimates. During late July and early August, seventy-three companies in the S&P 500 saw their stock prices reach 52-week highs. While Detroit still smolders, Ford Motors posted a US$2.3 billion quarterly profit.

At first glance, this isn't a bad showing for a country where the unemployment rate is at 9.5 percent and personal spending is down to 1997 levels, but is it the beginning of the end of The Great Recession? On August 6, US President Barack Obama told a Virginia crowd that "we might just be seeing the end of the recession" and on August 7, the US non-farm jobs report showed better than expected job declines which caused the S&P and the Dow to shoot to 2009 highs. By the same token, soon after the jobs report was issued the White House indicated that that they thought the US unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent before things get better. So, with all the mixed signals, how does one navigate the current economic environment?

In short: very carefully. To glean some sort of guidance, we are left to looking at the facts and hopefully learn from history. The Great Recession was a result of an American housing market gone bad. As sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages (including interest-only mortgages) reset themselves, people who bought more than they could afford just 'pay them anymore. Exacerbating matters was the collapse of unsustainable housing prices. Amounts owed became greater than the properties held as collateral, and people abandoned their homes. Even now, as the Case-Schiller Index has shown a slight improvement in housing prices, CNN reported recently that by 2011 half of all American mortgages (prime and sub-prime) will be underwater.

Making matters worse, it seems that some American mortgage lenders didn't learn their lesson last year.  For example, friends of mine in Portland, Oregon, recently refinanced their house just over a year after buying it. In the midst of a widespread real estate bust, the bank appraised the house at over 25% more than the purchase price a year earlier, and then offered my friends an opportunity to refinance for a loan greater than 100% of the house value.  Another friend in the US told me a similar story. So, it's unlikely that any true recovery will take hold until those who continue to behave badly, and those who feel they are entitled to a lifestyle beyond their income, come back to reality.

Also, another shoe has yet to drop: American consumer debt. According to an April 2009 Nilson Report, Americans held a cumulative US$972.73 billion in credit card debt, and the average credit card debt for households with credit cards was $10,637. That's almost one trillion dollars of credit card debt at an average annual interest rate of 15 percent. Keep in mind that the hotly-debated Obama Stimulus Package was valued at a mere US$787 billion, and the US national debt is now north of US$11 trillion. According to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee, 13.9 percent of consumer disposable income goes to service consumer debt, almost all of it credit card debt. Making things even more ominous is that, according to a July 2008 report by Javelin Strategy and Research, 28 percent of those surveyed indicated that their ability to pay off their credit card balance has become more difficult. With an economy now worse shape than a year ago, there's no doubt that 28 percent is a conservative number. According to an April 2009 report from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, 15 percent (34 million) of Americans were late in paying a credit card payment; 8 percent (18 million people) missed the payment altogether. According to a March 2009 Nilson report $462 billion, or almost 46 percent of outstanding credit card debt is held by Chase ($183.32 billion), Bank of America ($166.32 billion), and Citigroup ($106.74 billion), all three still smarting from write-downs from housing mortgages.

Further strangling the American consumer next year could be the price of oil and other commodities. Depending on who you want to believe, oil could cost anywhere from $50 to $150 per barrel by 2011. If Americans need to fork over US$4.00 per gallon to drive to their SUVs to their minimum wage jobs to pay their sub-prime mortgages and their maxed-out credit cards, then something will need to give. Their day of reckoning is almost here as economic growth in the developing countries will once again result in higher costs for commodities such as oil. This upward trend once again started after the March lows. Since commodities are priced in US dollars, a weak dollar will make commodities more expensive, but recently commodity prices have started to inch upwards simultaneously with an appreciation in the US dollar. Copper is up over 30% since March, and depending on who you talk with, could double in price sometime next year.

My late father, born in 1930, would never miss an opportunity to tell me to save my money for a rainy day. Not just money, but cash, because cash is king. A veteran of the Korean War who was never the most politically-correct, I'm sure he'd have a stroke if I told him that he thought more like an Asian than American. It's not an accident that the Asian economies are the biggest savers, especially after the Asian Financial Crisis on the late 1990s and because most Asians have learned through time that the only people they know they can rely on for their future is themselves. For example, my Chinese coworkers who are no more than a year or two out of college are squirreling away between 30-50 percent of their discretionary income.  In contrast, according to an April 2009 report by Sallie Mae, the average American recent college graduate leaves school with at least $4,100 in credit card debt and start their professional career paying debt service. As for my other coworkers who have been working for quite some time, they are saving 20 to 30 percent of their discretionary income.

As of June 2009, the five countries with the largest foreign reserves were China (US$2.2 trillion), Japan (US$1.0 trillion),  Russia (US$401 billion), Taiwan (US$305 billion), and India (US$262 billion). Brazil, the forth of the BRIC countries, had US$210 billion in reserves. It seems the new kings on the block are the developing, export-led economies that hold most of the cash from the hungry, debt-burdened primarily-American consumers. In China's case, it accumulated its wealth one $0.71 three-dimensional Last Supper clock at a time.  The only catch is that these developing countries will need to learn how to spend. These are the countries (ex-Japan, which is another story altogether) that are in the best position to lead the world out of The Great Recession by creating internal demand and consumer economies. Still, even a modest fraction of the US$4.4 trillion of foreign reserves noted above would provide a nice little boost to the global economy. This is already happening. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the US multinational corporations (MNCs) that beat their earnings expectations in Q2'09 saw most of their growth in developing countries, primarily in Asia (ex-Japan). Even McDonald's Corporation recently reported that their same-store comps where higher in Asia and developing markets than in the United States and Europe. There is no doubt this trend will continue for years to come.

After hundreds of years of colonial rule or victims of imperialism, it seems that the time has come for the developing economies; for the tail to wag the dog.  It just goes to show that what goes around does actually come back around. We are in the midst of a paradigm shift that has only just begun as all the cash that has flooded eastward slowly trickles back westward. This process will not occur without pain. Emerging markets will continue to influence commodity prices that will then squeeze the cash-strapped and credit-burdened  primarily American consumers, directly impacting their economic performance. Western countries will be forced to innovate and adapt, or face the prospect of stagnant wages and slow economic growth for the next ten to fifteen years as the consumer and national debts are slowly digested. In the meantime, the emerging markets will become the engine of the global economy. They will continue to be export-driven, but as their middle classes expand, they will increase their own domestic demand via consumer spending, and China will lead the way to become the world's economic superpower. Just think back to the formation of the US middle class after WWII, but on a much grander scale.

Those who cannot adjust to the new economic landscape as the global liquidity imbalance finds its equilibrium will be left behind. Economic Darwinisn. So, now would probably be a good time for everyone to first brush up on the definition of hysteresis as it applies to the flow of cash, and then consider a foreign language.  Ever since my first trip to China in October 2003, I knew there was a reason why I wanted to learn Mandarin.

Don't Be An Egg

A couple months ago, I read about Michael Hicks, 55, a contract employee at the IRS employee in Detroit who was arrested and convicted of urinating in an elevator. Apparently he had been at it for two years before he was finally caught. In the end, he was fined $4,626.25 for his actions. After reading the story, I said to myself, "so, what's the big deal?" The IRS is lucky it wasn't something much worse Hicks was leaving in the elevator, or anything I've see on a regular basis during my travels over the past few years. Maybe this was the first sign I've been in China a bit too long, or second, after I realized that spitting bones onto my dinner plate doesn't translate well back in the US. In any case, unlike some white people I've encountered in China, I take pride in consciously making this realization.

In his most fascinating book "Us and Them - Exploring Your Tribal Mind", David Berreby describes how cultures of similar people (human kind) possess an inane ability to understand coded signals via verbal and non-verbal cues each are emitting, allowing members of a particular human kind, even though they do not know each other, to have a basic understanding of each other. It's what allows members of the same culture to "get it". On numerous business trips to China over the years, visiting potential suppliers, it was easy to see how companies would put Berreby's book into practice even though they probably haven't read or heard about it: when somewhere far out in the provinces of China where the last foreigner besides my travel companions was seen a few hours prior, out in the middle of nowhere at a company staffed with only Chinese people (Them), a native Kansan pops up (Us), and within minutes the Kansan and the American business travelers become the best of friends, commiserating over their shared experience in China. This phenomenon is not racial, although differing races do allow for visual cues to facilitate the introductions, which is not really different than how members of the opposite sex find each other.

As an extension of this strategy, I've had managers at multinational companies with operations in China espouse on numerous occasions about their western staff who have multiple years of experience working in China, implying that their company and it's people are the best qualified to get things done in China. They're the people who can build the bridge between East and West. There is something to be said for those who possess the skills to successfully navigate the Chinese landscape, since daily life in China can be a hectic and confusing affair. Because of this, bookstores across America are loaded with books about understanding China, and how to do business in China; there are schools such as Portland State University that offer master's degrees in international management, which is essentially and MBA with a language (Chinese or Japanese) requirement and a focus on Asia. More MBA programs are sending their students to Asia each year; and undergrad study abroad programs are focusing on Asia. Productivity can be a challenge for the Westerner working in China, so it's always good to work with people/organizations that have some experience in the field to help things go smoothly. Western companies need more of them if they want to succeed in the global economy over the next 20 years.

At the same time, Westerners new to China can easily fall prey to Berreby's theories on tribal thinking. One may think that navigating China is all about interacting with the Chinese, but that's not the case. Navigating China also includes understanding how to navigate the foreigners. There comes a time when it's best to not follow along with members of the same tribe. This reminds me of an experience I had last October when I found myself in the Shanghai Pudong International Airport on my way back to Dalian. As I walked up to my gate, I saw dozens of white people sitting around my gate. Having lived in Dalian for just over a year, I knew that there was just no way this tour group of first-timers to China was going to where I was headed. Sure, Dalian is a Chinese tourist attraction but keep in mind that I get paid to live there. Once the Americans realized I was working/living in China, they pelted me with questions about China, I handed out some Imodium (known as Vitamin I to us expats) to an elderly couple who didn't bring any with them, and taught them the three most helpful Chinese phrases ("hello", "thank you", and "I no want"). When my flight to Dalian was called at the same time their flight to Beijing was called, I started down the escalator to my flight. Right behind me was a woman from the group going to Beijing, since the Beijing flight used the same escalator but a different Jetway. Even before I turned right toward my plane, I knew exactly what would happen next. I turned around to the woman who was now following me to my plane and said to her, "You're plane is over there. You don't want to go where I'm going." She seemed a bit confused, but learned an important lesson about life in China.

Assimilation has been around for as long as people have been traveling among different cultures. It can be as subtle as preferring green tea to coffee after spending a few years in China, or as extreme as the Borg where cultural destruction was inevitable and resistance to total assimilation into a bland, homogenous society was futile. Of course, depending on who you talk with, assimilation can be good or bad. Around the same time that Theodore Levitt coined the term "globalization" I was a junior high school social studies student in white bread Massena, New York, learning about the Melting Pot Theory and all it benefits even though the local population tended to validate the NIMBY Theory instead. Even a trip to Beijing makes me think twice about the benefits of assimilation and globalization even though I realize it's an inevitable force of the post-modern era.

Ben Franklin once said, "Moderation in everything -- including moderation." In moderate doses, prescription drugs, scotch, water, hamburgers, vitamins, shredded wheat, and just about everything else, are good things. Too much of a good thing, however, can easily turn into a bad thing. This also applies to assimilation. Unfortunately, there are some people who don't realize this, and those are the people whom others, particularly business people new to China, need to be wary. Just because a company may tout their China experience of their western employees based in China, or their overall Chinese experience, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is a good thing.

Sure, there are benefits to the cultural assimilation, melting pot theory, etc. that comes with globalization, but don't try telling that to any first generation Indian or Chinese immigrants to the U.S. who refer to their Americanized offspring as coconuts or bananas, respectively. According to Vijay Prashad of www.littleindia.com, "Indian American coconut, for instance, becomes 'white' in all respects but appearance. The Indian American coconut identifies as white, has 'white tastes' and has a disregard for things Indian." According to the American Born Chinese blog site, "Assimilation into the mainstream culture is often the typical commonality prevalent among Asians or any other ethnic groups that have been born and raised in the U.S. for the majority (if not all) of their lives. Therefore, many have blended into the societal values and culture of the 'host' country, and some have been viewed as seemingly having denied their heritage identity as a result. The derogatory terminology 'banana,' and 'Twinkie' are the common characteristics that reflect the 'white-washed' tendencies of these ABCs - yellow on the outside, yet white on the inside."

All this talk about coconuts, bananas and Twinkies, besides getting me hungry, brings me back to the white guys who have been in China too long, or don't realize they have been in China too long. In addition to working with Chinese, I also work with numerous Europeans and Americans who have been in Asia for many years. I fell into Berreby's tribal thinking trap by assuming that their whiteness, by definition, held them to a higher standard. In reality, however, it seems that they have betrayed their whiteness and became too Asian, or at least have assimilated the stereotypical qualities of the Asians: short-cutting to save time/money, producing a poor quality product that would require more time/money to fix/replace; initiating left-field discussions that to distract from the root cause analysis of the problem; use delay tactics to answer a question; squeezing every dime until it bleeds to the detriment of a proper long-term strategic solution; fixing the blame for something on everyone except themselves; and/or generating more excuses than a four-year-old caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Then again, I guess this could also apply to the Israelis. Anyhow, I tolerate this behavior from the Chinese and Asians because it's just the way things are in China and Asia.

But I have absolutely zero tolerance for this type of behavior from the Westerners because they know better. I can say with confidence say that I have had to watch over some of the white people in China with more diligence than their Chinese counterparts because the white people were the bigger risk since they were in management positions. These white people are an embarrassment and give the rest of us white people a bad name. They're not looking out for others, only themselves and their bottom line. Well, they may say differently, but their actions speak louder than their words.

After a couple years in China, it's easy to understand how this happens, since it's no different than an experience I had with a mechanical contractor in my hometown about ten years ago. The contractor was new to Massena and St. Lawrence County. He came into town with a business model that would have put many others out of business: he would show up to the project, and finish the work on time and on budget. The only problem is that after a while, he realized he didn't have to work so hard, and began to pick up the bad habits of the natives. It became impossible for him to finish a job, show up on time, etc. In China, I'm finding that those Westerners who compromise their work ethic are those who realize that they don't need to be the best of the best, but only the best of the worst.

So, while the Indians have their coconuts, and the Chinese have their bananas and Twinkies, us white boys have our eggs: white on the outside and yellow on the inside. Of course, since I'm in China, maybe it's more fitting to call these people 奶黄包 or nǎi huáng bāo,which is a kind of steamed bun with a sweet yellow filling, usually served at breakfast, but "egg" sounds better and is easier to remember.

I'm all about assimilation, but the Melting Pot Theory is too extreme. I'm more a fan of the Alloy Theory whereby the properties/characteristics of a base metal are strengthened by trace amounts of other metals/chemicals. Stainless steel comes to mind: it starts off as iron, but with a bit of nickel, molybdenum, magnesium, and some other metals, it turns into stainless steel, whereby iron is still the primary ingredient. It is possible for Westerners to live in China, learn from the experiences, and enhance and strengthen themselves as a result. As American Miriam Beard once said, "Travel is more than the seeing of sights; it is a change that goes on, deep and permanent, in the ideas of living." At the same time, we should all heed Ben Franklin's advice on moderation. In short, don't be an egg.

Repost: Asian Flight Attendants Slow Global Warming

I'm sorry I need to resort to reposting, but I'm going through a serious case of writer's block care of my job. I should know better than to let my work get in the way of creativity.  Welcome to corporte America...er, China. I first posted this in January 2007, so it's old enough that it could almost be considered new again.

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Beth, the flight attendant on my December 2005 Portland-to-Tokyo flight lived for her job. I knew she was special by the way she shoved that chicken in front of my face. Someone once said that a woman's eyes are a window to her soul. For a brief moment, I looked into deep into Beth's blue eyes and peeked at her soul. Nailed to it was a sign that said, "Don't fuck with Beth." It was going to be a long trip.

But a funny thing happened when I transferred to my Tokyo to Shanghai flight. All of a sudden, the flight attendants were friendly, talkative, and attentive. After a few minutes of chit-chat with one Chinese flight attendant, we discovered that her husband and I both worked for the same company, although I do not know him. If I didn't know better, I would have thought I boarded the wrong plane. I looked around, and realized that I was still flying with the same company. The only difference was that the flight attendant was born and raised in Shanghai. Then I started to do some thinking: if American manufacturing companies can outsource their labor to Asia, why shouldn't the airlines be able to insource all the flight attendant jobs to the Asians?

Over the past twelve months, I have flown over 150,000 miles on a variety of airlines: Northwest, Singapore Airlines, Alaskan Airlines, Malaysian Air, United, Delta, Continental, China Eastern, China Southern, Air China, Sichuan Airlines, Air France and Lufthansa, to name a few. It became very clear that the best flight attendants in the world worked for the Asian airlines. The global, gold standard for flight attendants, hands down, is Singapore Airlines. All flight attendants should strive to emulate the Singaporean flight attendants. In a perfect world, all flight attendants would be Singaporean. If Singapore needed an another export industry, it should be flight attendants. Next down the list are the Chinese and Malaysian flight attendants. I can also add Thai Airways to the mix, based on my previous experiences on that airline numerous years ago. Air France and Lufthansa are tied for a strong third place. I think Air France may be slightly ahead of Lufthansa just because of the friendly staff and the French accents. A female executive of one Germany company recently told me that, "Germany isn't really known for its service economy." A true statement, but even still, the long legs, blonde hair, and blue eyes of the Lufthansa flight attendants make up for deficiencies in other areas. On par w/ Lufthansa are the flight attendants at a couple of the American carriers minus the good genes: The Alaskan Airlines flight attendants always seem chipper and friendly; and all the Continental Airlines employees, in addition to working hard and flying right, have been downright helpful and courteous every time I boarded their planes. (It is not a coincidence that Continental Airlines is one of those rare profitable airlines. This begs the question: Do friendly employees make airlines profitable or do bankrupt airlines make flight attendants angry and bitter?)

At the bottom of the list, however, are the long-haul flight attendants such as Beth and The Sergeant, who are employed by the other major US carriers. Cranky, cranky, and cranky. To be fair, I should not paint a detailed picture with such a broad brush. There are some exceptional US-based flight attendants, but they're definitely diamonds in the rough. (For example, Jackie, the Hawaii-based Northwest flight attendant I met on July 2005 Portland-Tokyo flight, is still one of my favorites for being chipper, chatty, and personable.) Not all of Beth's co-workers that day were cranky. Only the US-based ones. There was one Tokyo-based woman working the flight that same day, and she was a real breath of fresh air. It was too bad she was stashed way up front in Business Class. I've always believed that first class flight attendants are assigned to first/business class, while the folks in coach get stuck with the leftovers.

For those who are not aware of the business model, most flight attendants need to fly 80 hours per month (20 hours/week) to be considered a full-time employee. These 80 hours could take the form of many short flights for many days a month or only a few long flights for a couple days per month. Of course, to minimize travel days per month, the long haul flights (11 hours from Portland to Tokyo; 9 hours from Tokyo to Portland, due to prevailing winds) are very attractive and in high demand. The catch, however, is that flight attendants choose their flight load based on seniority, in the professional and literal sense. As a result, the overseas passenger normally gets stuck with the 25-year veteran flight attendants who still think they're 20 years old and who should have turned in their wings 15 years prior. I still cannot figure out why someone who is so bitter and angry about their job and their employer insists on staying in their job. Unemployment in the US is at a five-year low, so there are other job opportunities beyond serving chicken at 35,000 feet to a mass of humanity crammed inside a giant toothpaste tube.

The senior flight attendants, generally do not contribute to the enjoyment of a flight. Come to think of it, they all can make it downright miserable. In the case of the flight attendants, they tend to give off a seriously bad vibe, be it from the latest labor negotiations or the need to work 80 hours per month. What I have yet to understand is how the American flight attendants seem so bitter, angry and condescending, while the Asian flight attendants on the exact same flight seem friendly, attentive, and interested in their customers. Could it be the 25-year age gap between the Americans and the Asians? Could it be that the Asian culture has a keener sense of customer service? According to one (white) United Airlines flight attendant I met in Shanghai, she thinks all white American men have yellow fever. Call me crazy, but I think white American men, like most men and women from all walks of life, just want to be treated with some common courtesy and respect.

However, in defense of the flight attendants, they (and the rest of us) should not have to put up with the likes of the angry traveler who paid for a coach class ticket and complains about the size of the seat or the people around them, or get violent because of weather delays. If you want to get a good glimpse of the battles the Southwest airline employees face in the line of duty, watch "Airline" on the Arts & Entertainment Channel. It may not be art, but it's definitely entertaining. On the extreme end of things, some flight attendants also have to deal with likes of the drunken American businessman who defecated on the food cart several years ago; or the mystery person who, on a United Flight from San Francisco to Shanghai, opted to defecate on the floor the restroom instead of in the toilet. Savages. All of them. Maybe airlines should increase airfares just to price out the riff-raff. Just remember to wear your shoes when you go to the bathroom on any airline flight, since you never know what may be lurking behind the door.

During my first trip to Dalian in September 2006, I met a Chinese man who owns his own business. He travels into the Chinese countryside to find people who hold the Chinese equivalent of a high school education, and then contracts them out to companies in Japan to do jobs that the Japanese won't do. Not much different than in Israel where they hire the Palestinians to harvest their crops; or the Malaysians who hire the Burmese and Bangladeshis to work in dirty manufacturing; or the US who hire the Mexicans and other Latin American. In the case of my Chinese friend, the Japanese hire the Chinese villagers for three-year contracts. At the end of those three years, that Chinese laborer will have made the equivalent of thirty (yes, 30!) years wages if he/she had stayed to work in their village. When the Chinese return to their village, they have immediately bumped up into the middle class, will buy/build a house, get married, have a family, and try to live happily ever after.

If the airlines are looking to save some money, they should remove all the over-priced, over-age, over-weight and over-cranky US-based flight attendants, and replace them with young, friendly, and attentive Asians. First of all, there is no reason why a US-based flight attendant should ever be working on flights originating or landing in an Asian country. The Houston-Beijing route on Continental should have all Chinese flight attendants. The Seattle-Tokyo and Portland-Tokyo routes on Northwest should have only Japanese flight attendants. This should be a no-brainer for airline management.

Insourcing flight attendants from Asia would be no different than the Chinese insourcing of western commercial airline pilots. The Chinese airline industry has estimated that they are short approximately 10,000 commercial airline pilots. As a result, experienced, western pilots are moving to China to fill the void. China realized they had a problem, and are insourcing pilots to resolve it. The US carriers need to realize they too have a problem (but with their flight attendants) and should also consider insourcing to resolve the problem. In today's modern world, we should all embrace globalization as a means to improve our own living conditions as well as those who live in emerging economies. Insourcing flight attendants from Asia would be a big step toward a better quality of life for many reasons:

1. The skies will once again be friendlier and prettier. It would be nice to get on a plane and be treated like a person rather than a head of cattle; and it would be nice to step onto a plane and be greeted by a pretty smiling face rather than....well, you know. Happy customers = repeat customers.

2. If the Asian outsourcing model holds true, the Asian flight attendants generally will be paid less than their American co-workers, but more than their native peers. This will reduce the cost of labor in the ticket pricing equation, as well as increase the financial well being of the flight attendant = more purchasing power and higher income taxes = improved economy of the flight attendant's country of origin.

3. Asian flight attendants are smaller/lighter than the larger/heavier US-based flight attendants. The lighter an airplane, the less fuel the plane consumes. Less fuel = lower costs = lower priced tickets = more happy customers = more profit for the airline = more happy shareholders. All is good.

4. Lighter flight attendants would be beneficial to the environment because less fuel also means less jet exhaust, a reduction in greenhouse gases, slowing of global warming, which will slow the melting of the polar ice caps. Even the polar bears that walk on the ice caps will be happy since they won't die a premature death from drowning in the ocean.

5. Smaller flight attendants will also help fight global terrorism, since using less fuel means less money in the pockets of the oil-rich nations that tend to host the fundamentalist groups responsible for senseless killings around the world.

6. Airlines would no longer need to worry about the flight attendant labor union and their high-priced demands. There are millions of cute Asian women to replace those who decide that being a flight attendant is not their cup of tea.

7. The Asian flight attendants will learn/improve their English and understanding of the Western World. As it turns out, China currently has a glut of over 1.24 million college graduates who cannot find work (Shanghai Daily, Nov 18-19, 2006, www.shanghaidaily.com). As a result, some have become despondent and suicidal. By putting them to work as flight attendants for a few years would allow them to improve their English, learn about the world by traveling around it and by talking with people from all walks of life. In turn, they will become more efficient and effective players in the global economy.

8. Creating a more international flight crew would be good for Americans, especially those who fly the Des Moines-Omaha route. People need to understand that we now live in a smaller world than 100 years ago, and those who live outside the US will have a greater impact on the future of the US than those in the US. By increasing the international diversity of all American flight crews, US passengers will gain a greater appreciation for different cultures and different walks of life. Maybe these flight crews will be able to teach the passengers a thing or two about common decency and respect toward others in cramped quarters. If you have ever been on the Shanghai subway at rush hour, you know what I mean.

So, in closing, insourcing flight attendants from Asia will make the world a better place. Everyone wins: the passengers, the airlines, the Chinese college graduates, the airline stockholders, Greenpeace, and even the polar bears and other wild animals. That is, everyone except for the terrorists, and we should be ok with that. Even Beth, my ray of sunshine from that Portland-Tokyo flight, will be a happy camper because she will no longer have to hand out mediocre chicken or beef dinners to a nameless mass of humanity while wearing a not-so-flattering polyester uniform for a bankrupt airline.

Happy Travels!

Running: Dalian-Style

Over the years I've found that there is no better, liver-friendly way to cleanse the brain after a crappy day at work than a good run. When I volunteered for a long-term expat assignment in China, I knew that one of the sacrifices I would have to make would be long distance running in the form of marathons and half-marathons. Dalian, with its 6.08 million people and requisite traffic and pollution, is not necessarily compatible with outdoor running. It's a big switch from Portland, Oregon, where clean and green running trails go on for miles. And honestly, there are just too many other distractions in the form of travel/sightseeing to remain disciplined about the whole running thing. Long gone are the days when a half-marathon was a training run. The extent of my outdoor running in Dalian has consisted of my semi-annual car-dodging ritual for 18km on the 2.6 km perimeter road of Xinghai Square, the largest public green space in all of Asia. The balance of my running has been limited to 5k runs on treadmill at my local gym just because the boredom won't let me run any farther. Still, although I hadn't run a half-marathon since June 2006, I couldn't pass up the chance to run the half-marathon at the 23rd "China Sports Lottery Cup" Dalian International Marathon held on April 26, 2009.

When I went to collect my race number the day before the race, I realized that the race organizers must have made a mistake. My number was 24. I usually get three- and four-, and sometimes 5-digit numbers typical of the average participant or plodder, not a two-digit number which are generally reserved for the elite runners. I know that sometimes the Chinese get confused about foreigners, but I'm almost positive it's difficult to confuse me with a Kenyan elite marathoner. Then again, maybe because I was a foreigner people thought I traveled to Dalian just for the running experience (and the US$25K first prize plus US$5K bonus if winner completes under 2:15:00) like the elites did. The only problem is that there is nothing elite about my running except for its mediocrity.

When I first moved to Dalian I was a bit surprised to learn that Dalian even had an annual marathon, half-marathon, or could even attract enough attendees since the Chinese, outside of their amazing Olympic performance, don't seem to be the most athletic of people. Sleepers are more common than runners. Chinese people can sleep anywhere, anytime, at the drop of a hat. The only Chinese I see doing any serious running are the members of the Olympic team in training I pass on my early morning drives to work; those who are trying to catch the bus as it drives away because they overslept; or those trying their luck with a real-life game of Frogger. Then again, it could be that expending energy on miscellaneous recreational endeavors is a characteristic of a well-developed middle class that has miscellaneous energy to expend. Most of the physical energy expended by the Chinese is still in the form of migrant manual labor and subsistence farming.

So, with the seemingly large number of novices, it only seemed natural for the race organizers provided, along with the race number and the color-coded race shirt, a pamphlet with race logistics, rules, and advice to ensure everyone had a safe and healthy run. For example:

• "The players of the Mini-marathon item have no limits to age and sex."
• "Players with the following diseases should not participate in the race: Congenital heart disease and rheumatic heart disease;  Hypertension and cerebral vascular diseases; Myocarditis and other heart disease; Coronary artery disease and severe arrhythmia; Diabetes mellitus with too high or too little glucose; Others that is not fit for sports."
• "Athletes without [timing] chip will have no achievement."
• "Running Marathon is a mind and physical challenges, but we should put safety for the first goal, and therefore we have to learn 'giving up.'"
• "Exercise properly for 30 minutes before the race: one is to improve their own body temperature and the other is to prevent heart movement."
• "Athletes who are obesity and have thicker tendon have to rub Vaseline ointment at the crotch to prevent skin injury."
• "Because some people have unmentionable diseases (some diseases have not been found by their own yet.), if they take part in the race with larger tension and intensity, their unmentionable diseases will possibly outbreak and have accidents."
• "For the normal people who had check-up, if they have one of the following circumstances, they should not take part in the race: heart rate up to 85 times per minute when in silence; blood pressure above 140/90 mmHg; coronary heart disease, frequent arrhythmia, sexual conduction block and other cardiovascular diseases…"
• "Marathon Sports is a long-distance aerobic exercise, before the race it should stimulate the excitement of the central nervous system so that various systems of the body (muscles, blood system, respiratory system, exercise system) can establish coordination, and all this can be achieved by gradual warming up."

On race day, I showed up to the starting line about an hour early to do some stretching in the crisp morning air. While stretching, I saw that the participants for the 5K charity run were getting themselves sorted out. As part of the charity run, employees of foreign companies in Dalian raised money and volunteered to escort handicapped runners. Not far from me was group of people wearing white bibs that said "Blind" in English and Chinese in big red print. A few seconds later I saw a group wearing bibs that said, "Deaf". Of course, I couldn't help but wonder where the dumb people were hanging out, but the smell of cigarette smoke wafting through the crowd told me they were not too far away.

By chance, the starting and finishing lines were two blocks away from my apartment, so there was no need to pack a gear bag, etc. that normally comes with such a race. I had with me only the necessities: shorts, shirt, shell, shoes, shades, and Shuffle (iPod, that is). While walking around the starting area, the Chinese crowds kept staring at me. About a year ago I pretty much phased out all staring people, but on this day, there seemed to be more than usual. When I entered a crowd, I parted it like Moses did the Red Sea. They all gave me space, which is not a typical behavior in China. A couple times, groups that were noisily chatting would stop, stare at me as I walked by, and then whisper among themselves while looking in my direction. Several times while I was stretching and listening to music, some Chinese runners asked if they could have their photo taken with me. My number was covered under a warm-up shell, but they apparently thought I, at 6-foot 4-inches and 185 pounds, was in good enough shape and had the look of some sort of elite runner. Although some were polite to ask for photos, I spotted others sneaking a shot or two from a distance. If they only knew they were wasting their film/memory on an average Joe.

Now, not only did I have a number I had to live up to, but the Chinese participants and spectators put some pretty high expectations on my performance. The pressure was on; stage fright was setting in. Little did they know that my only goal was to finish before the sweeper van pulled me off the course. Hedging my bets for good measure, I ran with a doctor. As the time was ticking down for the start of the race, I started thinking through all the standard stuff: Did I get all my stretching in? Did I need to use the bathroom? I ate properly that morning, but what do I do when I start getting hungry (no sports gels here)? Was I properly hydrated? What pace should I start? What was I forgetting? ...and the list went on. But the more I thought about all these things, I began to default to the tried-and-true method of finishing a long distance race: pace a few feet behind the cutest girl, and hopefully pick one that didn't have a boyfriend/husband/girlfriend, thick tendons, sexual conduction block, or any unmentionable diseases. Little did I know, until the start of the race that is,  that this was a flawed strategy: skinny Chinese girls don't have a lot of miscellaneous energy to expend on distance running, which defies some law of physics given the sheer amount of food one skinny Chinese girl can consume in one sitting.

The marathon was a two-lap, east-west, dual out-and-back (you get all that?) consisting of long gradual hills (what goes up must go down) with a few flat spots. The last three miles of the New York City Marathon came to mind, but over and over again. The race was on roads I normally traveled in by car, and the city seemed flatter when it was driven. Dalian is famous for its winds that never stop blowing, and during the race the wind lived up to its reputation. It helped in spots, pushing us up a couple of the hills, but the occasional northern gusts pushed everyone around the course.

Dalian put on its Sunday best that morning: clear blue skies; bright sunshine; quiet city streets devoid of cars and buses but lined with the leggy, pretty policewomen Dalian is also famous for; and crowds of the young and old, dragon dancers, drum beaters, some retirees with one foot already in the grave, and high school bands, all cheering "jia you" (go on!) for the Chinese and "lao wai jia you" (old foreigner go on!) for me and the couple dozen other foreigners among the 10,000-strong field. The only white spectator I saw for 13.1 miles gave me an enthusiastic high-five as if I was representing the entire race for him. The Dalian that we saw that morning is the way Dalian should be. If only Dalian could be that way every day, or at least once a week. The Mayor of Dalian should consider starting a Sunday Street Closure like in Bogota, Paris, San Francisco, and Tokyo, and giving the streets to runners, walkers, cyclists, kite flyers, and rollerbladers. There was something to be said for running down the middle of one of Dalian's main but generally clogged arteries, past City Hall and People's Square, listening to Springsteen's "Born in the U.S.A."

Leg cramps at the 16 km point on Xinghai Square started to ruin my day. In a way, I missed the taxi drivers at Xinghai because dodging them gave me something to think about besides running. Still, the cramps were nothing that that Nickelback, Prince and the Revolution, Daughtry, Fergie, Kiss, OAR, Guns 'n Roses, U2, Whitesnake, Matchbox Twenty, and a couple stretch breaks couldn't cure. As I headed into the last 2 km hill I had to stop again to stretch my protesting calves that hadn't seen that type of exercise in a very long time. It was just then The Boss carried me acrosss the finish line in 2 hours and 4 minutes with "Born to Run". It wasn't my best time, and it wasn't my worst, so all in all an average race on a kick-ass Spring day in Dalian. Eleven minutes and ten expensive seconds later, the first elite runner crossed the finish line. I briefly took some comfort in the fact that I beat the elite finisher across the finish line, but I ran one lap to his two. Oh well, you can't win them all. Just don't tell all the Chinese who put my photo into their albums!

If you have plans to be in Northeastern China next April, keep an eye out for the Dalian Marathon (www.dlmls.org). As far as races go, it's a unique event that foreigners shouldn't miss.

Photo Credit: www.dlmls.org.